Adam Taylor runs a key foreign affairs blog for the Washington Post. Today he was kind enough to ask for my views on this story of his about North Korea offering to send cheerleaders to Incheon for the Asian Games.
Here is the full text of my response:
I do think that [the offer to send a cheerleading squad to the South] is important and noteworthy; I do not see this as just some throwaway proposition that North Korea only plans to use as leverage (and ultimately cancel, though that is always possible) in the short-term.
If you are an optimist, it indicates that the softer line taken towards South Korea by the North Korean regime early in 2014 still has a chance and that there is still room in North Korean ruling circles for an opening of peaceful gestures toward the South. In spite of calling the South Korean president some really awful names and complaining rather loudly about South Korean-US military drills earlier this year, North Korea still has the capacity to reach out to Seoul. Anytime you have North Koreans agreeing to send an official delegation of their own people to South Korea for any reason, it is a big deal, I think you take it, and I think you say yes.
At the same time we cannot lose sight of the fact that North Korea has periodically and since its very beginnings, gone on these kind of charm offensives with South Korea, as part of a larger strategy of manipulation of South Korean public opinion — and in the past, attempts at the full subversion of the South Korean state. Not that these are a bunch of “pom-pom commandos”; I’m sure they will follow every rule set out for them.
[…] Consider Kim Jong-un’s emphasis on sports and on sports diplomacy. To the extent that he has put his mark on the North Korean leadership system and on ruling think, I that he does next to throw his weight around when it comes to matters of sport and sport diplomacy. The Dennis Rodman visit being one very important example.
Like musical ensembles, sports are one of the few ways in which North Koreans can leave the country officially and take trips; I think that’s a really important conduit. It does not mean that they’re all going to discoverJohn Locke and Adam Smith, but I think that it does open their eyes a bit and make for some fascinating interactions.
Maybe the big game here is that North Korea is looking towards 2018 when the ROK will host the Winter Olympics; I think that Kim very much wants to keep the door open for possibly cohosting events. (Chris Green has a great essay on this here: http://sinonk.com/2013/05/28/skiing-in-choppy-waters-north-korea-lays-out-the-pyeongchang-hustle/) That be good for his prestige and would feed into this notion he’s promoting internally of North Korea’s international importance.
Finally because his wife, Ri Sol-ju, was part of this cheerleading delegation at 2005 to Seoul, we cannot discount the fact that she might have personally lobbied for this; she might have had great experience then and want others to experience it today. It could be a nice reward for some über-loyal members of the elite to take such a trip; it’s obviously once-in-a-lifetime event.